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Sep 12, 2008 Singapore studies possible impact of quakes By Christopher Tan TWO new studies are under way to determine just how vulnerable Singapore is to earthquakes, despite long-held views that the island is immune to the devastating effects of nearby tremors. More frequent and intense seismic activity in the region recently has sparked the studies. Their results could affect building codes here, which currently do not require structures to be built to withstand quakes. News of the studies here comes as two strong earthquakes rattled Japan and Indonesia yesterday morning. The more powerful of the two, with a magnitude of 7.0, hit off Japan's northernmost main island of Hokkaido, the country's meteorological agency said. North-eastern Indonesia was hit by a 6.6-magnitude quake that struck beneath the Molucca Sea, reported the US Geological Survey. There were no reports of casualties or damage in both incidents. Neither had any impact here too, unlike recent quakes in Sumatra which have resulted in some high-rise buildings swaying. The Nanyang Technological University is involved in the two studies being undertaken here to find out if the effects felt in the Republic are likely to be more severe in future. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is planning to part-fund one study on the possible impact that natural catastrophes would have on Singapore's financial sector, with earthquakes high on the agenda. The second study, commissioned by the Building & Construction Authority (BCA), is part of its 'review of building codes and regulations after several major earthquakes in the region', said its spokesman Jeanna Das. The 'earthquake vulnerability' study, which will be completed in one to two years, will also 'analyse how various buildings react during tremors'. That the BCA has commissioned such a study is significant as it has always maintained that buildings here are safe from the effects of quakes in Sumatra because Singapore is far away from fault lines. It had added that Singapore had high standards governing construction. The two nearest fault lines in Sumatra are 400km and 700km away, so the seismic waves would have weakened considerably by the time they reach Singapore. But the frequency and intensity of recent seismic activity on the Indonesian island is worrying experts, who had previously believed that tremors were enough to make buildings sway, and no more. In February alone, US scientists recorded nearly 20 ruptures along the fault line off Sumatra that spawned the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami. Between Dec 25, 2004 and March 31 this year, Sumatra accounted for 23 per cent of all quakes measuring 6.9 or stronger on the Richter scale. In the last 30 years or so, the region accounted for only 2 per cent of quakes worldwide. Already reinsurers, known for being well ahead of the curve when it comes to spotting new risks, have raised the alarm. Munich Re and Swiss Re - the industry's two biggest players - have begun advising insurance companies to see if premiums need to reflect the potential risks of quake-related claims. Mr Peter Zimmerli, Swiss Re's vice-president (property & specialty), said: 'For earthquake exposure, we have worked to create awareness that there are such exposures in Singapore and therefore, the need to quantify and price such exposures into the premiums.' Mr Kua Ka Hin, chief executive of Munich Re's Singapore branch, concurred: 'Earthquake is not a non-issue anymore in Singapore. It is an issue of concern.' For now, however, general insurers continue to provide property owners earthquake coverage free of charge as no one in the industry wants to be the first to do otherwise. 'In a competitive market, charging could mean a loss of business,' a General Insurance Association spokesman said. Mr Kua said charging is not the only way. Insurers could also mitigate their exposure by transferring the risk to other insurers or reinsurers, transforming or structuring the risk to the capital market by using catastrophe bonds, restructuring of policies, pooling of similar type of risks of participating insurance companies, or simply minimising or curtailing coverage. Over at the National University of Singapore's nine-month-old Centre for Hazards Research, Prof C. G. Goh is examining how tremors will affect not just high-rise buildings but underground structures here as well, such as MRT tunnels. He told The Straits Times: 'One should bear in mind that a big earthquake is a low-probability but high-consequence event.' He added that based on the risk that the authorities are prepared to take, cost-effective and yet safe designs can be adopted to account 'for possible earthquake load'. 'It is not uncommon for building codes to be revised, if necessary, based on better understanding through years of research and also from actual events,' he said. christan@sph.com.sg Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings. All rights reserved. Privacy Statement & Condition of Access |